DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4006-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85034237690
论文题名: Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data
作者: Hasan M.A. ; Islam A.K.M.S. ; Akanda A.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 2169
结束页码: 2190
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias correction
; Climatic extremes
; CMIP5
; Monsoon
; RCM
; RCP
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; climate prediction
; correction
; downscaling
; extreme event
; monsoon
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; temperature gradient
; Bangladesh
; Ganges Delta
英文摘要: In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071–2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109134
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Rhode Island, 1 Lippitt Road, Kingston, RI 02881, United States; Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Zahir Raihan Rd, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
Recommended Citation:
Hasan M.A.,Islam A.K.M.S.,Akanda A.S.. Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)