| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-017-3963-8
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85031995902
|
| 论文题名: | Seasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon in CFSv2 |
| 作者: | Krishnamurthy V.
|
| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
|
| ISSN: | 9307575
|
| 出版年: | 2018
|
| 卷: | 51, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1427
|
| 结束页码: | 1448
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | CFSv2
; ENSO
; IOD
; Seasonal forecasts
; South Asian monsoon
|
| Scopus关键词: | El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; forecasting method
; Indian Ocean Dipole
; monsoon
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; South Asia
|
| 英文摘要: | The predictions of the seasonal mean monsoon over South Asia by a coupled model are assessed by analyzing the retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers of Environmental Prediction for the period 1982–2009. The predictability is assessed by examining the June–September seasonal mean of the outgoing longwave radiation in forecasts from May initial conditions. Although the forecasts exhibit considerable interannual variability, the correlation with the observation is low. While the model is able to predict weak (strong) seasonal monsoon during certain El Niño (La Niña) years, with differences in magnitude, the predictions in the years of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are not so successful. The relative role of the Pacific and Indian oceans in determining the seasonal mean monsoon is analyzed by extracting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode and IOD mode from the forecasts and observation. The model’s ENSO mode captures the observed spatial structure whereas its IOD mode shows incorrect anomalies over India. The model is inadequate in predicting the relative strength and signs of the ENSO and IOD modes. The ocean–atmosphere interaction of the ENSO mode is better represented in the model by capturing the observed relation with the sea surface temperature (SST) and the low-level winds. In the model’s IOD mode, the relation with the SST and the low-level winds is not correct over part of the Indian region while the anomalies over the Pacific Ocean also seem to influence, unlike in the observation. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109161
|
| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, MS 6C5, Research Hall, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Krishnamurthy V.. Seasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon in CFSv2[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(4)
|
|
|