DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3331-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984817897
论文题名: Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region
作者: Coppola E. ; Raffaele F. ; Giorgi F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 3 起始页码: 1259
结束页码: 1273
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alps
; Change hydrological cycle
; EURO-CORDEX
; Med-CORDEX
; Regional climate models
; Runoff
; Water year
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; hydrological cycle
; regional climate
; runoff
; snowmelt
; Alps
英文摘要: We investigate the climate change impact on snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the Alpine region using the output from two Med-CORDEX and two EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections (RCP8.5 scenario) at two resolutions (12, 50 km) driven by a sub-set of the CMIP5 GCMs. Comparison with the European Water Archive observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over the Alps shows a good performance by the higher resolution models in representing present day SDR, with the lower resolution simulations being less accurate in capturing the SDR timing. In the future projections all the models show a temperature increase of up to 4° by the end of the 21st century throughout the Alps and this leads to an anticipation of SDR timing throughout the year that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model horizontal resolution. These timing changes are associated with changes in snow cover modulated by the complex Alpine topography. In fact, model resolution plays a critical role in regulating the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of the response of snow cover and SDR to warming. We find that the accurate simulation of changes in runoff timing requires a high resolution representation of the Alpine topography, and can be important for water storage regulations concerning energy production, agriculture and domestic use. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109201
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Coppola E.,Raffaele F.,Giorgi F.. Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(3)