globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3604-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016107590
论文题名:
Future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes over India with statistical downscaling and its consistency with observed characteristics
作者: Shashikanth K.; Ghosh S.; Vittal H.; Karmakar S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期:2018-01-02
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Extreme value theory (EVT) ; Statistical downscaling
英文摘要: Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes and their changing characteristics under global warming have remained a potential area of research and a topic of scientific debate over the last decade. This partially attributes to multiple definitions of extremes reported in the past studies and poor understanding of the changing processes associated with extremes. The later one results into poor simulation of extremes by coarse resolution General Circulation Models under increased greenhouse gas emission which further deteriorates due to inadequate representation of monsoon processes in the models. Here we use transfer function based statistical downscaling model with non-parametric kernel regression for the projection of extremes and find such conventional regional modeling fails to simulate rainfall extremes over India. In this conjuncture, we modify the downscaling algorithm by applying a robust regression to the gridded extreme rainfall events. We observe, inclusion of robust regression to the downscaling algorithm improves the historical simulation of rainfall extremes at a 0.25° spatial resolution, as evaluated based on classical extreme value theory methods, viz., block maxima and peak over threshold. The future projections of extremes during 2081–2100, obtained with the developed algorithm show no change to slight increase in the spatial mean of extremes with dominance of spatial heterogeneity. These changing characteristics in future are consistent with the observed recent changes in extremes over India. The proposed methodology will be useful for assessing the impacts of climate change on extremes; specifically while spatially mapping the risk to rainfall extremes over India. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109208
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India; Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India; Center for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India; Department of Civil Engineering, University College of Engineering, Osmania University, Hyderabad, 500007, India

Recommended Citation:
Shashikanth K.,Ghosh S.,Vittal H.,et al. Future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes over India with statistical downscaling and its consistency with observed characteristics[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-01-02)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Shashikanth K.]'s Articles
[Ghosh S.]'s Articles
[Vittal H.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Shashikanth K.]'s Articles
[Ghosh S.]'s Articles
[Vittal H.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Shashikanth K.]‘s Articles
[Ghosh S.]‘s Articles
[Vittal H.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.