DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3946-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85031775846
论文题名: Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections
作者: Luca A.D. ; Evans J.P. ; Ji F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 639
结束页码: 666
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; High resolution
; Mountains
; Snow cover
; Snowfall
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; future prospect
; low temperature
; mountain region
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; snow cover
; snowpack
; Australia
; Australian Alps
; Equus asinus
英文摘要: In this study we evaluate the ability of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model simulations to represent snow cover characteristics over the Australian Alps and go on to asses future projections of snowpack characteristics. Our results show that the ensemble presents a cold temperature bias and overestimates total precipitation leading to a general overestimation of the snow cover as compared with MODIS satellite data. We then produce a new set of snowpack characteristics by running a temperature based snow melt/accumulation model forced by bias corrected temperature and precipitation fields. While some positive snow cover biases remain, the bias corrected (BC) dataset show large improvements regarding the simulation of total amounts, seasonality and spatial distribution of the snow cover compared with MODIS products. Both the raw and BC datasets are then used to assess future changes in the snowpack characteristics. Both datasets show robust increases in near-surface temperatures and decreases in snowfall that lead to a substantial reduction of the snowpack over the Australian Alps. The snowpack decreases by about 15 and 60% by 2030 and 2070 respectively. While the BC data introduce large differences in the simulation of the present climate snowpack, in relative terms future changes appear to be similar to those obtained using the raw data. Future temperature projections show a clear dependence with elevation through the snow-albedo feedback effect that affects snowpack projections. Uncertainties in future projections of the snowpack are large in both datasets and are mainly dominated by the choice of the lateral boundary conditions. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109249
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Planning and Environment, Queanbeyan, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Luca A.D.,Evans J.P.,Ji F.. Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-01-02)