DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3880-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028743485
论文题名: North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Niño diversity and differential teleconnections
作者: Beyene M.T. ; Jain S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 4365
结束页码: 4377
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; estimation method
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; temperature anomaly
; winter
; Canada
; Mexico [North America]
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Central)
; Pacific Ocean (East)
; United States
英文摘要: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections induced wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over North America show inter-event variability, asymmetry, and nonlinearity. This diagnostic study appraises the assumption that ENSO-induced teleconnections are adequately characterized as symmetric shifts in the SAT probability distributions for North American locations. To this end, a new conditional quantile functional estimation approach presented here incorporates: (a) the detailed nature of location and amplitude of SST anomalies—in particular the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) ENSO events—based on its two leading principal components, and (b) over the entire range of SATs, characterize the differential sensitivity to ENSO. Statistical significance is assessed using a wild bootstrap approach. Conditional risk at upper and lower quartile SAT conditioned on archetypical ENSO states is derived. There is marked asymmetry in ENSO effects on the likelihood of upper and lower quartile winter SATs for most North American regions. CP El Niño patterns show 20–80% decrease in the likelihood of lower quartile SATs for Canada and US west coast and a 20–40% increase across southeastern US. However, the upper quartile SAT for large swathes of Canada shows no sensitivity to CP El Niño. Similarly, EP El Niño is linked to a 40–80% increase in the probability of upper quartile winter SATs for Canada and northern US and a 20% decrease for southern US and northern Mexico regions; however, little or no change in the risk of lower quartile winter temperatures for southern parts of North America. Localized estimate of ENSO-related risk are also presented. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109255
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States
Recommended Citation:
Beyene M.T.,Jain S.. North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Niño diversity and differential teleconnections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)