DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027985733
论文题名: North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections
作者: Olson R. ; An S.-I. ; Fan Y. ; Evans J.P. ; Caesar L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 4171
结束页码: 4188
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
; Bayesian Model Averaging
; Climate modeling
; Model structural error
; Probabilistic projections
Scopus关键词: Bayesian analysis
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; meridional circulation
; numerical model
; overturn
; probability
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960–1999 and 2060–2099 of −4.0 Sv and −6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [−7.2, −1.2] and [−10.5, −3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109266
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, 538 Sciences Building, Seoul, South Korea; School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW, Sydney, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre for Excellence in Climate System Science, UNSW, Sydney, Australia; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Berlin, Germany; Institute for Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Olson R.,An S.-I.,Fan Y.,et al. North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)