DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3862-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027973055
论文题名: Reconstruction of precipitation variability in Estonia since the eighteenth century, inferred from oak and spruce tree rings
作者: Helama S. ; Sohar K. ; Läänelaid A. ; Bijak S. ; Jaagus J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 4083
结束页码: 4101
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cyclonic activity
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Palaeoclimatology
; Proxy data
; Regional curve standardization
; Scandinavia pattern
Scopus关键词: climatology
; cyclone
; eighteenth century
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; paleoclimate
; precipitation (climatology)
; proxy climate record
; reconstruction
; tree ring
; Estonia
; Picea
; Picea abies
; Quercus robur
英文摘要: There is plenty of evidence for intensification of the global hydrological cycle. In Europe, the northern areas are predicted to receive more precipitation in the future and observational evidence suggests a parallel trend over the past decades. As a consequence, it would be essential to place the recent trend in precipitation in the context of proxy-based estimates of reconstructed precipitation variability over the past centuries. Tree rings are frequently used as proxy data for palaeoclimate reconstructions. Here we use deciduous (Quercus robur) and coniferous (Picea abies) tree-ring width chronologies from western Estonia to deduce past early-summer (June) precipitation variability since 1771. Statistical model transforming our tree-ring data into estimates of precipitation sums explains 42% of the variance in instrumental variability. Comparisons with products of gridded reconstructions of soil moisture and summer precipitation illustrate robust correlations with soil moisture (Palmer Drought Severity Index), but lowered correlation with summer precipitation estimates prior to mid-nineteenth century, these instabilities possibly reflecting the general uncertainties inherent to early meteorological and proxy data. Reconstructed precipitation variability was negatively correlated to the teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern, on annual to decadal and longer scales. These relationships demonstrate the positive precipitation anomalies to result from increase in zonal inflow and cyclonic activity, the negative anomalies being linked with the high pressure conditions enhanced during the atmospheric blocking episodes. Recently, the instrumental data have demonstrated a remarkable increase in summer (June) precipitation in the study region. Our tree-ring based reconstruction reproduces this trend in the context of precipitation history since eighteenth century and quantifies the unprecedented abundance of June precipitation over the recent years. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109288
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Natural Resources Institute Finland, Eteläranta 55, Rovaniemi, 96301, Finland; Department of Geography, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise St. 46, Tartu, 51014, Estonia; Laboratory of Dendrometry and Forest Productivity, Warsaw University of Life Sciences–SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, Warszawa, 02-776, Poland
Recommended Citation:
Helama S.,Sohar K.,Läänelaid A.,et al. Reconstruction of precipitation variability in Estonia since the eighteenth century, inferred from oak and spruce tree rings[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)