DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3836-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85026741510
论文题名: Extended-range prediction of South Atlantic convergence zone rainfall with calibrated CFSv2 reforecast
作者: Hirata F.E. ; Grimm A.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-09-10 起始页码: 3699
结束页码: 3710
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate prediction
; hindcasting
; intertropical convergence zone
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; rainfall
; weather forecasting
; Brazil
英文摘要: During the 2010–2011 wet season in Brazil, widespread landslides triggered by heavy rainfall killed hundreds of people and displaced nearly 35,000. The extreme precipitation was associated with the formation of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). Even though the physical mechanisms behind the formation and persistence of subtropical convergence zones are still unclear, we demonstrate that early predictions of heavy rainfall in the SACZ region are possible. Precipitation rate hindcasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 are calibrated with the aid of a gridded precipitation dataset. When the calibration was applied to the 2010–2011 events, the hindcasts were able to depict both active and break phases of the SACZ with up to 2 weeks in advance during a period of relatively weak intraseasonal variability associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109304
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physics, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Av Cel Francisco H dos Santos, s/n, Curitiba, Paraná 81530-900, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Hirata F.E.,Grimm A.M.. Extended-range prediction of South Atlantic convergence zone rainfall with calibrated CFSv2 reforecast[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-09-10)