DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3834-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85026456157
论文题名: Historical forcings as main drivers of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in the CESM large ensemble
作者: Bellomo K. ; Murphy L.N. ; Cane M.A. ; Clement A.C. ; Polvani L.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-09-10 起始页码: 3687
结束页码: 3698
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; annual variation
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate forcing
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; greenhouse gas
; radiative forcing
; sea surface temperature
; troposphere
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Previous studies suggest that internal variability, in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), drives the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMV), while external radiative forcing only creates a steady increase in sea surface temperature (SST). This view has been recently challenged and new evidence has emerged that aerosols and greenhouse gases could play a role in driving the AMV. Here we examine the drivers of the AMV using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. By computing the ensemble mean we isolate the radiatively forced component of the AMV, while we estimate the role of internal variability using the ensemble spread. We find that phase changes of the AMV over the years 1854–2005 can be explained only in the presence of varying historical forcing. Further, we find that internal variability is large in North Atlantic SST at timescales shorter than 10–25 years, but at longer timescales the forced response dominates. Single forcing experiments show that greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols are the main drivers of the AMV in the latter part of the twentieth century. Finally, we show that the forced spatial pattern of SST is not distinct from the internal variability pattern, which has implications for detection and attribution. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109312
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bellomo K.,Murphy L.N.,Cane M.A.,et al. Historical forcings as main drivers of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in the CESM large ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-09-10)