DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029572950
论文题名: Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US
作者: Guirguis K. ; Gershunov A. ; Cayan D.R. ; Pierce D.W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-09-10 起始页码: 3853
结束页码: 3864
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate change
; CMIP
; heat wave
; probability
; warming
; United States
英文摘要: Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109328
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, Mail Code 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093, United States
Recommended Citation:
Guirguis K.,Gershunov A.,Cayan D.R.,et al. Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-09-10)