DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020508622
论文题名: Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1
作者: Day J.J. ; Holland M.M. ; Hodges K.I.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-09-10 起始页码: 3885
结束页码: 3903
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic cyclones
; Climate change
; Extreme weather
; Polar climate
; Storm risk
Scopus关键词: arctic environment
; climate change
; cyclone
; extreme event
; polar region
; risk
; seasonal variation
; storm
英文摘要: The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter. © 2018, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109334
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Day J.J.,Holland M.M.,Hodges K.I.. Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-09-10)