DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3761-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020487429
论文题名: Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?
作者: Mathis M. ; Elizalde A. ; Mikolajewicz U.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2637
结束页码: 2659
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air–sea interaction
; Climate change
; Dynamical downscaling
; North Sea
; Northwest European Shelf
; Ocean–atmosphere coupling
英文摘要: Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air–sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109351
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany; Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Mathis M.,Elizalde A.,Mikolajewicz U.. Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)