| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-017-3793-8
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85025457390
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| 论文题名: | An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models |
| 作者: | Menary M.B.; Wood R.A.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 50, 期:2018-07-08 | | 起始页码: | 3063
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| 结束页码: | 3080
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文摘要: | Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America. © 2017, © Crown Copyright as represented by the Met Office. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109359
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Menary M.B.,Wood R.A.. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)
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