globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3768-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020496593
论文题名:
On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements
作者: Angélil O.; Stone D.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.; Alexander L.V.; Wehner M.; Shiogama H.; Wolski P.; Ciavarella A.; Christidis N.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期:2018-07-08
起始页码: 2739
结束页码: 2752
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AGCMs ; Attribution ; C20C+ ; Extremes
英文摘要: In the context of ongoing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporal scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109367
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan; Climate Systems Analysis Group, Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Angélil O.,Stone D.,Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.,et al. On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)
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