DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3762-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021058811
论文题名: Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast
作者: Lok C.C.F. ; Chan J.C.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2661
结束页码: 2672
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Downscaling
; East Asia
; Regional climate model
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Tropical cyclone landfall
; WRF
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; computer simulation
; downscaling
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; China
; Guangdong
; Hainan
; Pacific Ocean
; South China Sea
英文摘要: A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109376
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Lok C.C.F.,Chan J.C.L.. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)