DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3795-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85023753144
论文题名: Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China
作者: Ying K. ; Frederiksen C.S. ; Zhao T. ; Zheng X. ; Xiong Z. ; Yi X. ; Li C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 3081
结束页码: 3095
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic SST
; Atmospheric teleconnection
; ENSO
; Indian Ocean SST
; Predictable signal
; Unpredictable noise
Scopus关键词: air-sea interaction
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; temperature anomaly
; China
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: This study investigates the patterns of interannual variability that arise from the potentially predictable (slow) and unpredictable (intraseasonal) components of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast (NE) China, using observations from a network of 162 meteorological stations for the period 1961–2014. A variance decomposition method is applied to identify the sources of predictability, as well as the sources of prediction uncertainty, for January–February–March (JFM), April–May–June (AMJ), July–August–September (JAS) and October–November–December (OND). The averaged potential predictability (ratio of slow to total variance) of NE China precipitation has the highest value of 0.32 during JAS and lowest value of 0.1 in AMJ. Possible sources of seasonal prediction for the leading predictable precipitation EOF modes come from the SST anomalies in the Japan Sea, as well as the North Atlantic during JFM, the Indian Ocean SST in AMJ, and the eastern tropical Pacific SST in JAS and OND. The prolonged linear trend, which is seen in the principal component time series of the leading predictable mode in JFM and OND, may also serve as a source of predictability. The Polar–Eurasia and Northern Annular Mode atmospheric teleconnection patterns are closely connected with the leading and the second predictable mode of JAS, respectively. The Hadley cell circulation is closely related to the leading predictable mode of OND. The leading/second unpredictable precipitation modes for all these four seasons show a similar monopole/dipole structure, and can be largely attributed to the intraseasonal variabilities of the atmosphere. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109377
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; The Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; The School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Regional Climate Center of Shenyang, Shenyang, China
Recommended Citation:
Ying K.,Frederiksen C.S.,Zhao T.,et al. Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)