DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3744-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021069005
论文题名: Objectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence
作者: Lewis N. ; Grünwald P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 2199
结束页码: 2216
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AR5
; Bayesian updating
; Climate sensitivity
; Combining evidence
; Objective Bayesian
; Profile likelihood
Scopus关键词: Bayesian analysis
; climate variation
; instrumentation
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; paleoclimate
; probability
; proxy climate record
; sensitivity analysis
英文摘要: Combining instrumental period evidence regarding equilibrium climate sensitivity with largely independent paleoclimate proxy evidence should enable a more constrained sensitivity estimate to be obtained. Previous, subjective Bayesian approaches involved selection of a prior probability distribution reflecting the investigators’ beliefs about climate sensitivity. Here a recently developed approach employing two different statistical methods—objective Bayesian and frequentist likelihood-ratio—is used to combine instrumental period and paleoclimate evidence based on data presented and assessments made in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Probabilistic estimates from each source of evidence are represented by posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of physically-appropriate form that can be uniquely factored into a likelihood function and a noninformative prior distribution. The three-parameter form is shown accurately to fit a wide range of estimated climate sensitivity PDFs. The likelihood functions relating to the probabilistic estimates from the two sources are multiplicatively combined and a prior is derived that is noninformative for inference from the combined evidence. A posterior PDF that incorporates the evidence from both sources is produced using a single-step approach, which avoids the order-dependency that would arise if Bayesian updating were used. Results are compared with an alternative approach using the frequentist signed root likelihood ratio method. Results from these two methods are effectively identical, and provide a 5–95% range for climate sensitivity of 1.1–4.05 K (median 1.87 K). © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109389
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Bath, United Kingdom; CWI Amsterdam and Leiden University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Lewis N.,Grünwald P.. Objectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)