DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3733-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019686760
论文题名: Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves
作者: Zhu Z. ; Li T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 2007
结束页码: 2021
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extended-range forecast
; Heat waves
; Spatial–temporal projection model
; Summer surface air temperature over China
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; heat wave
; spatiotemporal analysis
; surface temperature
; weather forecasting
; China
英文摘要: Because of growing demand from agricultural planning, power management and activity scheduling, extended-range (5–30-day lead) forecasting of summer surface air temperature (SAT) and heat waves over China is carried out in the present study via spatial–temporal projection models (STPMs). Based on the training data during 1960–1999, the predictability sources are found to propagate from Europe, Northeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific, to influence the intraseasonal 10–80 day SAT over China. STPMs are therefore constructed using the projection domains, which are determined by these previous predictability sources. For the independent forecast period (2000–2013), the STPMs can reproduce EOF-filtered 30–80 day SAT at all lead times of 5–30 days over most part of China, and observed 30–80 and 10–80 day SAT at 25–30 days over eastern China. Significant pattern correlation coefficients account for more than 50% of total forecasts at all 5–30-day lead times against EOF-filtered and observed 30–80 day SAT, and at a 20-day lead time against observed 10–80 day SAT. The STPMs perform poorly in reproducing 10–30 day SAT. Forecasting for the first two modes of 10–30 day SAT only shows useful skill within a 15-day lead time. Forecasting for the third mode of 10–30 day SAT is useless after a 10-day lead time. The forecasted heat waves over China are determined by the reconstructed SAT which is the summation of the forecasted 10–80 day SAT and the lower frequency (longer than 80-day) climatological SAT. Over a large part of China, the STPMs can forecast more than 30% of heat waves within a 15-day lead time. In general, the STPMs demonstrate the promising skill for extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer SAT and heat waves. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109390
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, Post Bldg. 401, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu Z.,Li T.. Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)