DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3735-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020316175
论文题名: Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate
作者: Barcikowska M.J. ; Kapnick S.B. ; Feser F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 2039
结束页码: 2059
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; extreme event
; fluid dynamics
; general circulation model
; global warming
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; transition zone
; winter
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109410
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Princeton University, GFDL Princeton University Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, United States; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Barcikowska M.J.,Kapnick S.B.,Feser F.. Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)