DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3644-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017188484
论文题名: Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships’ logbooks, 1815–1854. Part I: methodology and evaluation
作者: Barrett H.G. ; Jones J.M. ; Bigg G.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 845
结束页码: 862
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change and variability
; El Niño
; ENSO reconstruction
; Ships’ logbooks
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate variation
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; methodology
; proxy climate record
; wind
英文摘要: The meteorological information found within ships’ logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979–2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830–1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109458
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter Street, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Barrett H.G.,Jones J.M.,Bigg G.R.. Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships’ logbooks, 1815–1854. Part I: methodology and evaluation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)