DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020730838
论文题名: Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model
作者: Robson J. ; Polo I. ; Hodson D.L.R. ; Stevens D.P. ; Shaffrey L.C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 921
结束页码: 937
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Decadal prediction
; High-resolution climate modelling
; North Atlantic
; Subpolar gyre
Scopus关键词: air-sea interaction
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; gyre
; heat transfer
; hindcasting
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; prediction
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: This paper presents an analysis of initialised decadal hindcasts of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) using the HiGEM model, which has a nominal grid-spacing of 90 km in the atmosphere, and 1/3∘ in the ocean. HiGEM decadal predictions (HiGEM-DP) exhibit significant skill at capturing 0–500 m ocean heat content in the SPG, and outperform historically forced transient integrations and persistence for up to a decade ahead. An analysis of case-studies of North Atlantic decadal change, including the 1960s cooling, the mid-1990s warming, and the post-2005 cooling, show that changes in ocean circulation and heat transport dominate the predictions of the SPG. However, different processes are found to dominate heat content changes in different regions of the SPG. Specifically, ocean advection dominates in the east, but surface fluxes dominate in the west. Furthermore, compared to previous studies, we find a smaller role for ocean heat transport changes due to ocean circulation anomalies at the latitudes of the SPG, and, for the 1960s cooling, a greater role for surface fluxes. Finally, HiGEM-DP predicts the observed positive state of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the early 1990s. These results support an important role for the ocean in driving past changes in the North Atlantic region, and suggest that these changes were predictable. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109469
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science (Climate), Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Mathematics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Robson J.,Polo I.,Hodson D.L.R.,et al. Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)