DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3673-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017174904
论文题名: Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds
作者: Siler N. ; Po-Chedley S. ; Bretherton C.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 1209
结束页码: 1220
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cloud feedback
; Emergent constraint
; Equilibrium climate sensitivity
Scopus关键词: climate feedback
; climate modeling
; cloud
; sea surface temperature
; shortwave radiation
; spatial distribution
英文摘要: Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r= 0.84) of a model’s global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58 ± 0.31 Wm- 2 K- 1 (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm- 2 K- 1, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109473
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, #0206, La Jolla, CA 92037-0206, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Box 351640, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
Recommended Citation:
Siler N.,Po-Chedley S.,Bretherton C.S.. Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)