DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3645-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016425042
论文题名: Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States
作者: Zobel Z. ; Wang J. ; Wuebbles D.J. ; Kotamarthi V.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 863
结束页码: 884
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate extremes
; Dynamical downscaling
; Ensemble
; Global climate models
; Regional climate models
; Statistical evaluation
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; computer simulation
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; future prospect
; global climate
; regional climate
; statistical analysis
; United States
英文摘要: This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 × 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109474
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, 105 South Gregory Street, Champaign, IL 61801, United States; Division of Environmental Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory, Chicago, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zobel Z.,Wang J.,Wuebbles D.J.,et al. Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)