DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3581-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015251813
论文题名: Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model
作者: Roach L.A. ; Tett S.F.B. ; Mineter M.J. ; Yamazaki K. ; Rae C.D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 51
结束页码: 65
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model
; Optimization
; Parameters
; Sea ice
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; climatology
; computer simulation
; global climate
; optimization
; sea ice
; time series analysis
; Arctic Ocean
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109480
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 301 Evans Bay Parade, Greta Point, Wellington, New Zealand; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building, Alexander Crum Brown Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom; Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Devon, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Roach L.A.,Tett S.F.B.,Mineter M.J.,et al. Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)