DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3632-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016104750
论文题名: Thermohaline circulation: a missing equation and its climate-change implications
作者: Ou H.-W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 641
结束页码: 653
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Fluctuation theorem
; Global warming
; Maximum entropy production
; Ocean hysteresis
; Thermohaline circulation
Scopus关键词: atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate change
; general circulation model
; global warming
; heat transfer
; hysteresis
; thermohaline circulation
英文摘要: We formulate a box model of coupled ocean–atmosphere to examine the differential fields interactive with the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their response to global warming. We discern a robust convective bound on the atmospheric heat transport, which would divide the climate regime into warm and cold branches; but unlike the saline mode of previous box models, the cold state, if allowed, has the same-signed—though weaker—density contrast and THC as the present climate, which may explain its emergence from coupled general circulation models. We underscore the nondeterminacy of the THC due to random eddy shedding and apply the fluctuation theorem to constrain the shedding rate, thus closing the problem. The derivation reveals an ocean propelled toward the maximum entropy production (MEP) on millennial timescale (termed “MEP-adjustment”), the long timescale arising from the compounding effect of microscopic fluctuations in the shedding rate and their slight probability bias. Global warming may induce hysteresis between the two branches, like that seen in GCMs, but the cold transition is far more sensitive to the moistening than the heating effects as the latter would be countered by the hydrological feedback. The uni- or bi-modality of the current state—hence whether the THC may recover after the cold transition—depends on the global-mean convective flux and may not be easily assessed due to its observed uncertainty. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109487
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; 100 Overlook Terrace, Apt. 47, New York, NY 10040, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ou H.-W.. Thermohaline circulation: a missing equation and its climate-change implications[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)