DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3606-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015998503
论文题名: Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM
作者: Rhoades A.M. ; Ullrich P.A. ; Zarzycki C.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 261
结束页码: 288
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Elevation-dependent warming
; Mountain snowpack
; Regional climate modeling
; Variable-resolution climate modeling
; Western USA
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; elevation
; mountain region
; regional climate
; snowpack
; twenty first century
; warming
; United States
英文摘要: Climate change will impact western USA water supplies by shifting precipitation from snow to rain and driving snowmelt earlier in the season. However, changes at the regional-to-mountain scale is still a major topic of interest. This study addresses the impacts of climate change on mountain snowpack by assessing historical and projected variable-resolution (VR) climate simulations in the community earth system model (VR-CESM) forced by prescribed sea-surface temperatures along with widely used regional downscaling techniques, the coupled model intercomparison projects phase 5 bias corrected and statistically downscaled (CMIP5-BCSD) and the North American regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP). The multi-model RCP8.5 scenario analysis of winter season SWE for western USA mountains indicates by 2040-2065 mean SWE could decrease −19% (NARCCAP) to −38% (VR-CESM), with an ensemble median change of −27%. Contrary to CMIP5-BCSD and NARCCAP, VR-CESM highlights a more pessimistic outcome for western USA mountain snowpack in latter-parts of the 21st century. This is related to temperature changes altering the snow-albedo feedback, snowpack storage, and precipitation phase, but may indicate that VR-CESM resolves more physically consistent elevational effects lacking in statistically downscaled datasets and teleconnections that are not captured in limited area models. Overall, VR-CESM projects by 2075–2100 that average western USA mountain snowfall decreases by −30%, snow cover by −44%, SWE by −69%, and average surface temperature increase of +5.0 ∘C. This places pressure on western USA states to preemptively invest in climate adaptation measures such as alternative water storage, water use efficiency, and reassess reservoir storage operations. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109513
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources (LAWR), University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rhoades A.M.,Ullrich P.A.,Zarzycki C.M.. Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)