DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3609-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85014788388
论文题名: Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models
作者: Il Jeong D. ; Sushama L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 303
结束页码: 316
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Flood
; North America
; Rain-on-snow events
; Regional climate modeling
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; flood
; general circulation model
; rainfall
; regional climate
; snow
; Canada
; United States
英文摘要: This study evaluates projected changes to rain-on-snow (ROS) characteristics (i.e., frequency, rainfall amount, and runoff) for the future 2041–2070 period with respect to the current 1976–2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Prior to assessing projected changes, the two RCMs are evaluated by comparing ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations with available observations, and results indicate that both models reproduce reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of ROS event frequency and other related features. Analysis of current and future simulations suggest general increases in ROS characteristics during the November–March period for most regions of Canada and for northwestern US for the future period, due to an increase in the rainfall frequency with warmer air temperatures in future. Future ROS runoff is often projected to increase more than future ROS rainfall amounts, particularly for northeastern North America, during snowmelt months, as ROS events usually accelerate snowmelt. The simulations show that ROS event is a primary flood generating mechanism over most of Canada and north-western and -central US for the January–May period for the current period and this is projected to continue in the future period. More focused analysis over selected basins shows decreases in future spring runoff due to decreases in both snow cover and ROS runoff. The above results highlight the need to take into consideration ROS events in water resources management adaptation strategies for future climate. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109521
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle Régionale), Université du Québec à Montréal, 201, Ave. President-Kenned, Montreal, QC H2X 3Y7, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Il Jeong D.,Sushama L.. Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)