Computer hardware description languages
; Decay (organic)
; Distribution functions
; Forecasting
; Mercury (metal)
; Monitoring
; Probability
; Probability distributions
; Conditional probabilities
; Cumulative distribution function
; Deformation measurements
; Forecasting methods
; Krafla
; Log-logistic distribution
; Statistical descriptions
; Threshold criterion
; Volcanoes
; deflation
; forecasting method
; igneous intrusion
; magma assimilation
; volcanic eruption
; volcanology
; Iceland
; Krafla
英文摘要:
A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well-known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurised magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ. The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t⁎) is approximately equal to τ. The distribution of t⁎/τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99
School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Edge Hill University, Ormskirk, L39 4QP, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Grant Institute, The King's Buildings, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Blake S.,Cortés J.A.. Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2018-01-01,481