DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14329
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053926139
论文题名: Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems
作者: Tan X. ; Gan T.Y. ; Horton D.E.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 10 起始页码: 4696
结束页码: 4708
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate extremes
; marine realms
; terrestrial biomes
; time of emergence
英文摘要: Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110231
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tan X.,Gan T.Y.,Horton D.E.. Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(10)