DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14315
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85051519805
论文题名: Signals of large scale climate drivers, hatchery enhancement, and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model
作者: Cunningham C.J. ; Westley P.A.H. ; Adkison M.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 9 起始页码: 4399
结束页码: 4416
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian estimation
; Chinook salmon conservation
; climate change
; environmental regulation of survival
; life cycle models
; marine and freshwater mortality
; salmon assessment
; Yukon River
Scopus关键词: Oncorhynchus
; Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
英文摘要: Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co-occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage-structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density-dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age-specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species’ range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110256
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Fisheries, College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cunningham C.J.,Westley P.A.H.,Adkison M.D.. Signals of large scale climate drivers, hatchery enhancement, and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(9)