DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14300
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047829418
论文题名: Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift
作者: Crickenberger S. ; Wethey D.S.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 8 起始页码: 3804
结束页码: 3819
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate variability
; competency window
; dispersal
; interior range fragmentation
; range shift
; Semibalanus balanoides
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate variation
; dispersal
; recruitment (population dynamics)
; reproductive success
; temperature anomaly
; United States
; Semibalanus balanoides
; Thoracica
英文摘要: Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110314
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States; The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong KongSAR, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Crickenberger S.,Wethey D.S.. Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(8)