DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14053
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042145599
论文题名: Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages
作者: Mustonen K.-R. ; Mykrä H. ; Marttila H. ; Sarremejane R. ; Veijalainen N. ; Sippel K. ; Muotka T. ; Hawkins C.P.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 6 起始页码: 2434
结束页码: 2446
语种: 英语
英文关键词: benthic macroinvertebrates
; boreal streams
; climate change
; flow regime
; hydrological modeling
; multitaxon distribution model
; thermal regime
Scopus关键词: benthos
; climate change
; climate prediction
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological response
; macroinvertebrate
; taxonomy
; thermal regime
; Finland
; Invertebrata
英文摘要: Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070–2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near-pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species’ distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate-induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present-day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high-flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110402
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Freshwater Centre, Oulu, Finland; Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Research Group, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Freshwater Centre, Modelling and Assessment Unit, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Watershed Sciences, Western Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Freshwater Ecosystems, and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mustonen K.-R.,Mykrä H.,Marttila H.,et al. Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(6)