DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14023
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042589312
论文题名: Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds
作者: Haest B. ; Hüppop O. ; Bairlein F.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 4 起始页码: 1523
结束页码: 1537
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bird migration
; climate change
; large-scale climate indices
; meta-analysis
; Northern Hemisphere
; short-distance migration
; time window analysis
; trans-Saharan migrants
Scopus关键词: bird
; climate change
; meta-analysis
; migration
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Northern Hemisphere
; phenology
; Germany
; Helgoland
; North Frisian Islands
; Schleswig-Holstein
; Aves
英文摘要: Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta-analysis, and a meta-analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short- and long-distance migrants from the constant-effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = −0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%–6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = −0.13, SE = 0.019). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110458
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Avian Research “Vogelwarte Helgoland”, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Haest B.,Hüppop O.,Bairlein F.. Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(4)