DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13992
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042591831
论文题名: Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests
作者: Guevara L. ; Gerstner B.E. ; Kass J.M. ; Anderson R.P.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 4 起始页码: 1511
结束页码: 1522
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; ecological niche
; Last Glacial Maximum
; Mammalia
; MAXENT
; paleoecology
; species distribution
Scopus关键词: cloud forest
; geographical distribution
; Last Glacial Maximum
; mammal
; montane forest
; paleoclimate
; paleoecology
; prediction
; species diversity
; tropical forest
; Cryptotis
; Mammalia
; Sorex monticolus
; Soricidae
英文摘要: There is an urgent need for more ecologically realistic models for better predicting the effects of climate change on species’ potential geographic distributions. Here we build ecological niche models using MAXENT and test whether selecting predictor variables based on biological knowledge and selecting ecologically realistic response curves can improve cross-time distributional predictions. We also evaluate how the method chosen for extrapolation into nonanalog conditions affects the prediction. We do so by estimating the potential distribution of a montane shrew (Mammalia, Soricidae, Cryptotis mexicanus) at present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Because it is tightly associated with cloud forests (with climatically determined upper and lower limits) whose distributional shifts are well characterized, this species provides clear expectations of plausible vs. implausible results. Response curves for the MAXENT model made using variables selected via biological justification were ecologically more realistic compared with those of the model made using many potential predictors. This strategy also led to much more plausible geographic predictions for upper and lower elevational limits of the species both for the present and during the LGM. By inspecting the modeled response curves, we also determined the most appropriate way to extrapolate into nonanalog environments, a previously overlooked factor in studies involving model transfer. This study provides intuitive context for recommendations that should promote more realistic ecological niche models for transfer across space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110461
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Biology, City College of New York, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States; Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico; Department of Fisheries & Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; Program in Biology, Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States; Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy), American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Guevara L.,Gerstner B.E.,Kass J.M.,et al. Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(4)