| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.13975
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85042608897
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| 论文题名: | How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming? |
| 作者: | Reisinger A.; Clark H.
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| 刊名: | Global Change Biology
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| ISSN: | 13541013
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 24, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1749
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| 结束页码: | 1761
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | 1.5°C warming
; attribution
; climate change metrics
; global warming potential
; livestock
; non-CO2mitigation
; Paris Agreement
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| Scopus关键词: | agricultural emission
; anthropogenic effect
; carbon cycle
; climate modeling
; global warming
; livestock
; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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| 英文摘要: | Agriculture directly contributes about 10%–12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO2. Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO2emissions now and in future, and to CO2from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO2emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO2from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO2livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO2emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO2emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110463
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Reisinger A.,Clark H.. How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(4)
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