DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13919
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032303073
论文题名: Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios
作者: White K.S. ; Gregovich D.P. ; Levi T.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 3 起始页码: 1136
结束页码: 1149
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alaska
; alpine ecosystems
; climate change
; conservation
; general circulation models
; habitat change
; mountain goat
; Oreamnos americanus
; population modeling
; resource selection function
Scopus关键词: Oreamnos
; Oreamnos americanus
; Ungulata
英文摘要: Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key “early warning signs” about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015–2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., “thermoneutral”) summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%–86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110472
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Division of Wildlife Conservation, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Juneau, AK, United States; Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
White K.S.,Gregovich D.P.,Levi T.. Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(3)