DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13925
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032729705
论文题名: How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?
作者: Dyderski M.K. ; Paź S. ; Frelich L.E. ; Jagodziński A.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 3 起始页码: 1150
结束页码: 1163
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; disturbance
; extinction
; forest management
; forest policy
; habitat suitability
; species distribution model
Scopus关键词: Abies alba
; Betula pendula
; Fagus sylvatica
; Fraxinus excelsior
; Larix decidua
; Picea abies
; Pinus sylvestris
; Pseudotsuga menziesii
; Quercus robur
; Robinia pseudoacacia
英文摘要: Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061–2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios—optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)—using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061–2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: “winners”—mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; “losers”—mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species—Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as “winners.” Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110509
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland; Department of Game Management and Forest Protection, Faculty of Forestry, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań, Poland; Faculty of Forestry, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań, Poland; Department of Forest Resources, Center for Forest Ecology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dyderski M.K.,Paź S.,Frelich L.E.,et al. How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(3)