DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13946
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041296423
论文题名: Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest
作者: Jin Z. ; Ainsworth E.A. ; Leakey A.D.B. ; Lobell D.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 2 起始页码: e522
结束页码: e533
语种: 英语
英文关键词: crop modeling
; drought
; elevated CO2
; soybean
Scopus关键词: aboveground biomass
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; drought
; light use efficiency
; photosynthesis
; soybean
; Midwest
; United States
; Glycine max
英文摘要: Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process-based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free-Air CO2 Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground biomass production at elevated [CO2] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO2]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional-scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO2] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO2] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110553
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Plant Biology, Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, United States; Agriculture Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Urbana, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jin Z.,Ainsworth E.A.,Leakey A.D.B.,et al. Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(2)