DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13879
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030174475
论文题名: Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios
作者: Carboni M. ; Guéguen M. ; Barros C. ; Georges D. ; Boulangeat I. ; Douzet R. ; Dullinger S. ; Klonner G. ; van Kleunen M. ; Essl F. ; Bossdorf O. ; Haeuser E. ; Talluto M.V. ; Moser D. ; Block S. ; Conti L. ; Dullinger I. ; Münkemüller T. ; Thuiller W.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 1 起始页码: e289
结束页码: e302
语种: 英语
英文关键词: alien species
; biotic interactions
; dynamic vegetation model
; European Alps
; mountain environments
; ornamental species
; propagule pressure
Scopus关键词: climate change
; competition (ecology)
; environmental change
; global change
; introduced species
; modeling
; mountain region
; vegetation
; Alps
; France
英文摘要: Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110564
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine, CNRS, LECA, University of Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus C, Denmark; Station Alpine Joseph Fourier, UMS 3370 UJF-CNRS, Grenoble, France; Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany; Institute of Evolution & Ecology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany; Dipartimento di Scienze, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy; Institute of Social Ecology, Faculty for Interdisciplinary Studies, Alps Adria University, Vienna, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Carboni M.,Guéguen M.,Barros C.,et al. Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(1)