DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13929
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039743281
论文题名: Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean
作者: Meyer-Gutbrod E.L. ; Greene C.H.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 1 起始页码: 455
结束页码: 464
语种: 英语
英文关键词: capture–recapture
; conservation
; demography
; endangered species
; Eubalaena glacialis
; marine ecology
; population modeling
; right whale
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; demography
; endangered species
; marine ecosystem
; mortality
; population modeling
; species conservation
; whale
; Balaenidae
; Cetacea
; Eubalaena glacialis
; animal
; Atlantic Ocean
; Cetacea
; climate change
; ecosystem
; endangered species
; population dynamics
; population growth
; uncertainty
; Animals
; Atlantic Ocean
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Endangered Species
; Population Dynamics
; Population Growth
; Uncertainty
; Whales
英文摘要: Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate-associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture-recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110626
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Ocean Ecosystems and Resources Program, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Meyer-Gutbrod E.L.,Greene C.H.. Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(1)