DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0016.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054065818
论文题名: Seasonal prediction from Arctic sea surface temperatures: Opportunities and pitfalls
作者: Kolstad E.W. ; Årthun M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 20 起始页码: 8197
结束页码: 8210
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate prediction
; Interannual variability
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Sea surface temperature
; Seasonal forecasting
; Teleconnections
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Climate prediction
; Interannual variability
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Teleconnections
; Oceanography
英文摘要: Arctic sea ice extent and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been shown to be skillful predictors of weather anomalies in the midlatitudes on the seasonal time scale. In particular, below-normal sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in fall has sometimes preceded cold winters in parts of Eurasia. Here we explore the potential for predicting seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Europe from seasonal SST anomalies in the Nordic seas throughout the year. First, we show that fall SST anomalies not just in the Barents Sea but also in the Norwegian Sea have the potential to predict wintertime SAT anomalies in Europe. Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring are also significant predictors of European SAT anomalies in summer. Second, we demonstrate that the potential for prediction is sensitive to trends in the data. In particular, the lagged correlation between Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring and European SAT anomalies in summer is considerably higher for raw data than linearly detrended data, largely due to warming SST and SAT trends in recent decades. Third, we show that the potential for prediction has not been stationary in time. One key result is that, according to two twentieth-century reanalyses, the strength of the negative lagged correlation between Barents Sea SST anomalies in fall and European SAT anomalies in winter after 1979 is unprecedented since 1900. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110651
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Kolstad E.W.,Årthun M.. Seasonal prediction from Arctic sea surface temperatures: Opportunities and pitfalls[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)