globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052976683
论文题名:
Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model
作者: Siler N.; Roe G.H.; Armour K.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:18
起始页码: 7481
结束页码: 7493
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Eddies ; Energy transport ; Hadley circulation ; Hydrologic cycle
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation ; Budget control ; Energy balance ; Global warming ; Hydrology ; Sandwich structures ; Tropics ; Eddies ; Energy balance models ; Energy transport ; Global climate model ; Hadley circulation ; Hydrologic cycles ; Poleward energy transport ; Surface energy budget ; Climate models
英文摘要: Recent studies have shown that the change in poleward energy transport under global warming is well approximated by downgradient transport of near-surface moist static energy (MSE) modulated by the spatial pattern of radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake. Here we explore the implications of downgradient MSE transport for changes in the vertically integrated moisture flux and thus the zonal-mean pattern of evaporation minus precipitation (E - P). Using a conventional energy balance model that we have modified to represent the Hadley cell, we find that downgradient MSE transport implies changes in E-P that mirror those simulated by comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), including a poleward expansion of the subtropical belt where E > P, and a poleward shift in the extratropical minimum of E - P associated with the storm tracks. The surface energy budget imposes further constraints on E and P independently: E increases almost everywhere, with relatively little spatial variability, while P must increase in the deep tropics, decrease in the subtropics, and increase in middle and high latitudes. Variations in the spatial pattern of radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake across GCMs modulate these basic features, accounting for much of the model spread in the zonal-mean response of E and P to climate change. Thus, the principle of downgradient energy transport appears to provide a simple explanation for the basic structure of hydrologic cycle changes in GCM simulations of global warming. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110699
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; School of Oceanography, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Siler N.,Roe G.H.,Armour K.C.. Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(18)
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