DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.010
论文题名: Crop response to climate change in southern Africa: A comprehensive review
作者: Zinyengere N. ; Crespo O. ; Hachigonta S.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8206
出版年: 2013
卷: 111 起始页码: 118
结束页码: 126
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation
; Climate change
; Crops
; Modelling
; Southern Africa
Scopus关键词: Adaptation
; Climate scenarios
; Fertilisation
; Food security
; Modelling techniques
; Process-based
; Southern Africa
; Statistical methodologies
; Carbon dioxide
; Crops
; Food supply
; Models
; Tools
; Climate change
; agricultural modeling
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; fertilizer application
; food security
; literature review
; maize
; twenty first century
; yield response
; Southern Africa
英文摘要: Concern over future food security in southern Africa has led to various studies that assess the impact of climate change on crops in the region. The results vary according to applied methods and tools. This study reviewed and consolidated results from 19 recent studies which quantitatively project the impact of climate change on crops for the 21st century in southern Africa. Results were assessed according to crop modelling techniques, which included process-based, statistical and economic (Ricardian) modelling. Studies were assessed for their reporting and recommendations concerning adaptation and CO2 fertilisation. Results suggest that the aggregate impact of climate change on crops in southern Africa will be negative. Maize yields are projected to decline on average by 18%. The collective impact of climate change on all crop yields shows a median decline of -11% and -14% respectively under process-based and statistical methodologies. Median impacts show declining crop yields through the 21st century. No significant change in the near future, -18% for the mid century and -30% for late century. GCM driven Ricardian projections are highly variable. However, uniform climate scenarios project a median revenue decline. Notwithstanding the challenges of such a review; lack of data, bias towards reported methods and tools, uncertainty, scale etc., results indicate that climate change may impact southern African crops in important ways thereby making adaptation essential. Adaptation and CO2 fertilisation could potentially moderate the negative impacts of climate change. This implies a need for studies into future adaptation that consider CO2 fertilisation. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84884759212&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.08.010&partnerID=40&md5=cba1714a3bd3f249bd356224f7817b4f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11112
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701 Cape Town, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Zinyengere N.,Crespo O.,Hachigonta S.. Crop response to climate change in southern Africa: A comprehensive review[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,111.