DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002
论文题名: A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA
作者: Hinkel J. ; Nicholls R.J. ; Tol R.S.J. ; Wang Z.B. ; Hamilton J.M. ; Boot G. ; Vafeidis A.T. ; McFadden L. ; Ganopolski A. ; Klein R.J.T.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8207
出版年: 2013
卷: 111 起始页码: 150
结束页码: 158
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Beach nourishment
; Climate adaptation
; Climate impacts
; Erosion
; Sandy beaches
; Tourism
Scopus关键词: Beach nourishment
; Climate adaptation
; Climate impacts
; Sandy beach
; Tourism
; Beaches
; Coastal zones
; Cost benefit analysis
; Costs
; Land use
; Sea level
; Shore protection
; Erosion
; beach
; climate effect
; cost-benefit analysis
; erosion
; global perspective
; land degradation
; land management
; sandy soil
; sea level change
; tourism
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US$ 300-1000billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US$ 65-220billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84885369212&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.09.002&partnerID=40&md5=2ed7d9f9689a588fe5cc026d290be0ee
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11113
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Global Climate Forum (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Hinkel J.,Nicholls R.J.,Tol R.S.J.,et al. A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,111.