DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0747.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052934328
论文题名: Projection of landfalling-tropical cyclone rainfall in the eastern United States under anthropogenic warming
作者: Liu M. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Smith J.A. ; Murakami H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 18 起始页码: 7269
结束页码: 7286
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Rainfall
; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Floods
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Anthropogenic warming
; Composite analysis
; Extratropical transition
; Flood hazards
; Landfalling tropical cyclones
; Prominent features
; Storm center
; Tropical cyclone
; Rain
英文摘要: Landfalling-tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important element of inland flood hazards in the eastern United States. The projection of landfalling-TC rainfall under anthropogenic warming provides insight into future flood risks. This study examines the frequency of landfalling TCs and associated rainfall using the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model through comparisons with observed TC track and rainfall over the July-November 1979-2005 seasons. The projection of landfalling-TC frequency and rainfall under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the late twentyfirst century is explored, including an assessment of the impacts of extratropical transition (ET). In most regions of the southeastern United States, competition between increased storm rain rate and decreased storm frequency dominates the change of annual TC rainfall, and rainfall from ET and non-ET storms. In the northeastern United States, a prominent feature is the striking increase of ET-storm frequency but with tropical characteristics (i.e., prior to the ET phase), a key element of increased rainfall. The storm-centered rainfall composite analyses show the greatest increase at a radius of a few hundred kilometers from the storm centers. Over both ocean and land, the increase of rainfall within 500 km from the storm center exceeds the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling for TC-phase storms. Similar results are found in the front-left quadrant ofET-phase storms. Future work involving explorations ofmultiplemodels (e.g., higher atmospheric resolution version of the FLOR model) for TC-rainfall projection is expected to add more robustness to projection results. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111396
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu M.,Vecchi G.A.,Smith J.A.,et al. Projection of landfalling-tropical cyclone rainfall in the eastern United States under anthropogenic warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(18)