DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0682.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052973920
论文题名: A test of emergent constraints on cloud feedback and climate sensitivity using a calibrated single-model ensemble
作者: Wagman B.M. ; Jackson C.S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 18 起始页码: 7515
结束页码: 7532
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere
; Bayesian methods
; Climate prediction
; Climate sensitivity
; Ensembles
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Earth atmosphere
; Feedback
; Mixing
; Tropics
; Troposphere
; Bayesian methods
; Climate prediction
; Climate sensitivity
; Ensembles
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Climate models
英文摘要: A calibrated single-model ensemble (SME) derived from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1, is used to test two hypothesized emergent constraints on cloud feedback and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The Fasullo and Trenberth relative humidity (RH) metric and the Sherwood et al. lowertropospheric mixing (LTMI) metric are computed for the present-day climate of the SME, and the relationships between the metrics, ECS, and cloud and other climate feedbacks are examined. The tropical convergence zone relative humidity (RHM) and the parameterized lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMIS) are positively correlated to ECS, and each is associated with a different spatial pattern of tropical shortwave cloud feedback in the SME. However, neither of those metrics is linked to the type of cloud response hypothesized by its authors. The resolved lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMID) is positively correlated to ECS for a subset of the SME having LTMID over a threshold value. LTMI and the RH for the dry, descending branch of the Hadley cell (RHD) narrow and shift upward the posterior estimates of ECS in the SME, but the SME bias in RHD and concerns over poorly understood physical mechanisms suggest the narrowing could be spurious for both constraints. While calibrated SME results may not generalize to multimodel ensembles, they can enhance the process understanding of emergent constraints and serve as out-of-sample tests of robustness. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111410
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Geophysics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wagman B.M.,Jackson C.S.. A test of emergent constraints on cloud feedback and climate sensitivity using a calibrated single-model ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(18)