DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0041.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050181826
论文题名: The downward influence of uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response to climate change
作者: Simpson I.R. ; Hitchcock P. ; Seager R. ; Wu Y. ; Callaghan P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 16 起始页码: 6371
结束页码: 6391
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Climate change
; Dynamics
; General circulation models
; Stratospheric circulation
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Dynamics
; Regression analysis
; Sea level
; Troposphere
; Uncertainty analysis
; Vortex flow
; Atmospheric circulation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; European precipitations
; General circulation model
; Northern Hemispheres
; Stratospheric circulations
; Stratospheric polar vortex
; Tropospheric circulation
; Climate change
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; general circulation model
; Northern Hemisphere
; sea level pressure
; stratosphere
; uncertainty analysis
; vortex
; Arctic Ocean
; Europe
英文摘要: General circulation models display a wide range of future predicted changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric polar vortex. The downward influence of this stratospheric uncertainty on the troposphere has previously been inferred from regression analyses across models and is thought to contribute to model spread in tropospheric circulation change. Here we complement such regression analyses with idealized experiments using one model where different changes in the zonal-mean stratospheric polar vortex are artificially imposed to mimic the extreme ends of polar vortex change simulated by models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The influence of the stratospheric vortex change on the tropospheric circulation in these experiments is quantitatively in agreement with the inferred downward influence from across-model regressions, indicating that such regressions depict a true downward influence of stratospheric vortex change on the troposphere below. With a relative weakening of the polar vortex comes a relative increase in Arctic sea level pressure (SLP), a decrease in zonal wind over the North Atlantic, drying over northern Europe, and wetting over southern Europe. The contribution of stratospheric vortex change to intermodel spread in these quantities is assessed in the CMIP5 models. The spread, as given by 4 times the across-model standard deviation, is reduced by roughly 10% on regressing out the contribution from stratospheric vortex change, while the difference between models on extreme ends of the distribution in terms of their stratospheric vortex change can reach up to 50% of the overall model spread for Arctic SLP and 20% of the overall spread in European precipitation. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111420
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Simpson I.R.,Hitchcock P.,Seager R.,et al. The downward influence of uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response to climate change[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(16)