DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0182.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050207625
论文题名: How wet and dry spells evolve across the conterminous United States based on 555 years of paleoclimate data
作者: Ho M. ; Lall U. ; Cook E.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 16 起始页码: 6633
结束页码: 6647
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought
; Hindcasts
; Pattern detection
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Hidden Markov models
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Viterbi algorithm
; Hindcasts
; Paleoclimate reconstruction
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Pattern detection
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Temporal and spatial
; Temporal variability
; Unconditional simulations
; Pattern recognition
; climate classification
; climate forcing
; drought
; Markov chain
; paleoclimate
; reconstruction
; regional pattern
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temporal evolution
; United States
英文摘要: Evolving patterns of droughts and wet spells in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined over 555 years using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstruction of the modified Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). A hidden Markov model is used as an unsupervised method of classifying climate states and quantifying the temporal evolution from one state to another. Modeling temporal variability in spatial patterns of drought and wet spells provides the ability to objectively assess and simulate historical persistence and recurrence of similar patterns. The Viterbi algorithm reveals the probable sequence of states through time, enabling an examination of temporal and spatial features and associated large-scale climate forcing. Distinct patterns of sea surface temperature that are known to enhance or inhibit rainfall are associated with some states. Using the current CONUS PDSI field the model can be used to simulate the space-time PDSI pattern over the next few years, or unconditional simulations can be used to derive estimates of spatially concurrent PDSI patterns and their persistence and intensity across the CONUS. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111425
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain, Australian Capital Territory, ACT, Australia; Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ho M.,Lall U.,Cook E.R.. How wet and dry spells evolve across the conterminous United States based on 555 years of paleoclimate data[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(16)