DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0218.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049724045
论文题名: The impact of SST-forced and unforced teleconnections on 2015/16 El Niño winter precipitation over the western United States
作者: Lim Y.-K. ; Schubert S.D. ; Chang Y. ; Molod A.M. ; Pawson S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 15 起始页码: 5825
结束页码: 5844
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; El Nino
; General circulation models
; Precipitation
; Seasonal forecasting
; Teleconnections
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Sea level
; Surface waters
; Climate variability
; EL Nino
; General circulation model
; Seasonal forecasting
; Teleconnections
; Climate models
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate variation
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; moisture transfer
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea level pressure
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; teleconnection
; weather forecasting
; winter
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; United States
英文摘要: The factors impacting western U.S. winter precipitation during the 2015/16 El Niño are investigated using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), data, and simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model forced with specified sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Results reveal that the simulated response to the tropical Pacific SST associated with the 2015/16 El Niño was to produce wetter than normal conditions over much of the North American west coast including California-a result at odds with the negative precipitation anomalies observed over much of the southwestern United States. It is shown that two factors acted to partly counter the canonical ENSO response in that region. First, a potentially predictable but modest response to the unusually strong and persistent warm SST in the northeastern Pacific decreased precipitation in the southwestern United States by increasing sea level pressure, driving anticyclonic circulation and atmospheric descent, and reducing moisture transport into that region. Second, large-scale unforced (by SST) components of atmospheric variability (consisting of the leading modes of unpredictable intraensemble variability) resembling the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation are found to be an important contributor to the drying over the western United States. While a statistical reconstruction of the precipitation from our simulations that account for internal atmospheric variability does much to close the gap between the ensemble-mean and observed precipitation in the southwestern United States, some differences remain, indicating that model error is also playing a role. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111426
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, I.M. Systems Group, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lim Y.-K.,Schubert S.D.,Chang Y.,et al. The impact of SST-forced and unforced teleconnections on 2015/16 El Niño winter precipitation over the western United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(15)